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November 6, 2023
6 mins read

Nasrallah sees Israel as dead without close US Protection

Away from the emotions that accompanied the popular reading of the speech of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Mr. Hassan Nasrallah, last Friday, those with a cool-headed approach returned to evaluate matters from the perspective of their relationship with the ongoing confrontational facts. Hezbollah, which bears a lot of pressure regarding the upcoming confrontation with Israel, has surpassed the popular reaction and shifted to its actual agenda. This agenda revolves around the region entering a new phase of confrontation, with its key elements being the erosion of Israeli prestige, Israel’s descent into complete madness, the growing American military presence in the region to protect Israel on one hand, and the possibility of engaging with Israel’s enemies on the other.

What has become clear since October 7th is that several elements have solidified the view of Israel. The central institutions of Israeli decision-making have suffered a major shock, and intelligence agencies have lost the trust of a significant portion of the public as well as a considerable part of the political leadership. More importantly, its image has been shaken among its partners and allies in Western intelligence, and its standing has diminished in the eyes of its adversaries. The intelligence issue is a central point in an entity whose stability relies on the primary role of its security and military forces. The erosion of trust has made Israel appear in a deplorable state in the eyes of its people and leaders. While the West, led by the United States, quickly moved to contain the situation, it happened simultaneously with a rising outcry among Israel’s leaders and their audience.

This is the first time that Israel has sought this kind of help while facing militant party organizations rather than armies or states. It’s as if Israel received a blow that left it unconscious and unable to stand without assistance. However, it didn’t stop there; it asked those who helped to stay by its side because it is not confident it won’t fall again. In a span of 24 hours, Israel requested that America provide everything possible to assist: billions of dollars, opening strategic stockpiles for ammunition transport without limits or restrictions on usage, and, on top of that, sending troops to the Palestinian coast to reassure Israel that it is not left to its own fate.

While it’s not in the interest of the Americans and the West for Israel to collapse and for them to lose this significant investment, it should be noted that what is happening now is that Israel is telling itself, its supporters and allies and its opponents and enemies, that it is not in a position to manage its affairs on its own. In practice, this means not only the involvement of American leaders in political and military operations but also that we are facing a rare test regarding the idea that Israel is no longer capable of resilience without the direct presence of the United States.In this context, everyone knows that what Israel is requesting from the United States and its allies goes beyond providing cover for its bloody frenzy against the people of Gaza. It touches on providing the regional political and military environment that allows it to carry out its crimes without facing additional risks. In this sense, the Americans exerted significant pressure on all the capitals in the region, prevented governments from taking any steps that would weaken Israel’s position, and continued their support for the criminal operations without concerning themselves with any other narrative.

It is well understood that the current American military presence, although primarily deterrent, will turn into an offensive weapon for Israel…Israel, in one way or another, may drag [the US] into the heart of a battle whose nature and scale cannot be predicted by anyone. 

But more importantly, the United States found itself, for the first time, concerned with providing logistical and military elements to ensure the war’s non-expansion. In this sense, it is well understood that the current American military presence, although primarily deterrent, will turn into an offensive weapon for Israel at a certain moment, highlighting the fact that America is not now facing a scene testing its influence in the region but is facing a situation where Israel, in one way or another, may drag it into the heart of a battle whose nature and scale cannot be predicted by anyone.It appears that the Americans have realized that the initial military reinforcements were not effective in deterring the Resistance Axis, so they have decided to send more. The discussion is no longer limited to the aircraft carriers “Ford” and “Eisenhower.” Just yesterday, it was announced that the largest American submarine, the “Ohio,” is being sent to the Middle East. The United States has also announced that a B-1 Lancer bomber from the air refueling wing has begun its missions in the region. This mission was designed to emphasize the speed of movement and operational flexibility between the United States and its partners, while demonstrating the US military’s ability to respond to crises and emergencies across operational theaters.

 It is essential to thoroughly analyze the political discourse presented by Nasrallah in his speech last Friday…It introduces a new dimension to the confrontation, emphasizing that the battle has now also centered on the American occupation, which is poised to expand in the region.

In this context, it is essential to thoroughly analyze the political discourse presented by Nasrallah in his speech last Friday. It was a carefully crafted speech because it introduces a new dimension to the confrontation, emphasizing that the battle has now also centered on the American occupation, which is poised to expand in the region. While the Resistance Axis was initially focused on how to expel the remaining U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, it now finds itself compelled to consider that the confrontation has expanded to include American military bases at sea or those expected to be established within the Israeli entity in the near future.

This means that the dynamics of the larger battle, which originally factored in the American element, now necessitate dealing with this element as an active and direct partner in the war that Israel is waging. Based on this, the context of the new phase mentioned by Nasrallah is linked to various tasks. It includes elements related to the ongoing war in Gaza, where it appears that the Lebanese Resistance has decided to develop the type of confrontations with the occupation forces on the southern border of Lebanon, opening the door to new weapons and tactics that will appear in the field. Furthermore, there’s a readiness and a demonstration of full preparedness for the possibility of a serious escalation of the situation into wider confrontations with the [Israeli] occupation forces.

What they may face from the Resistance Axis forces will be no less effective in driving out the American occupation from the region than it would be in dealing with the Israeli. 

However, the most important aspect is the reorganization of the mechanisms of action of the Resistance Axis forces as a whole, in the context of exhausting Israel and preventing it from eliminating the resistance in Gaza, while notifying Israel that American military support does not provide it with substantial protection. More importantly, this pushes the Americans to reconsider the basis of their presence in the region, taking into account that what they may face from the Resistance Axis forces will be no less effective in driving out the American occupation from the region than it would be in dealing with Israel.It’s worth noting that anyone who thinks that striking the American occupation is in itself a severe blow, and perhaps even more so for the Israelis, should think about how to manage the operation. If the decision is clear, the will to fight is present, and the resources are potentially sufficient, the most critical aspect is to develop a mechanism that allows for the execution of this significant task with precision-calculated costs, preventing the Americans from becoming even more irrational than the Israelis. These calculations do not imply retreating or hesitating. Perhaps this is what lies at the core of Nasrallah’s recent speech because anyone who thinks that Hezbollah is retreating or afraid to enter a comprehensive confrontation is certainly not present in the decision-making centers, whether in the United States or among the remaining Israeli leadership.

The battle for the liberation of Palestine is no longer a luxury or a fantasy; it will undoubtedly sweep away the American invasion from our region and erase the lingering effects of its occupation in our countries on multiple levels. 

As for those who were waiting for Nasrallah to come out and say, “Look, the aircraft carrier is on fire, so they should calm down and wait for what the man will say next Saturday,” they need to be prepared for a harsher round than an open war with the American occupation and all its military, political, diplomatic, media, and civilian tools. These tools must decide quickly on which front they stand because the battle for the liberation of Palestine is no longer a luxury or a fantasy; it will undoubtedly sweep away the American invasion from our region and erase the lingering effects of its occupation in our countries on multiple levels.

This article is translated from the original published in Al Akhbar

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